The Sabermetrics Of Sucking: Chicago’s Biggest Busts

EDITOR’S NOTE: This report also appears in this week’s issue of TimeOut Chicago, as part of our weekly web-to-print partnership.

Finally! He’s here! The Messiah of the Midway, the Savior of the Second City, the King of the Friendly Confines, etc: Anthony Rizzo.

The buzz surrounding Rizzo’s debut has President Obama, Conan O’Brien, and the Dos Equis guy nervous that the sweet-swinging first baseman will soon take their jobs. But if this all sounds familiar, it’s because many a player has been hailed as the man to finally bring World Series glory back to the Chicago Cubs franchise. And this is not just a Cubs phenomenon. The White Sox and Bulls have made their fair share of bone-headed deals, and the Chicago Bears draft the way Skip Bayless talks about basketball—confused, ineffective, and downright infuriating.

Yes, we’ve seen our share of disappointment. But which players were the most fantastic flops?

To attack the question, I created a statistic to measure each candidate’s “Bust Factor.” Think of it as a sabermetrics of sucking—the bigger the number, the bigger the bust. And don’t even think of arguing with me, because then you’re arguing with science, my friend, and I think we all know: Science rules.

Bust Factor = (Expected Statistical Performance / Real On-Field Output) x Average Annual Salary (in millions) + Intangible Disappointments (on a 1-10 scale)

Cade McNown, Bears (97.50)

McNown is no different from any Bears QB since the Super Bowl Shuffle era in that he was pretty bad at his position. What puts him at the top of this list is how high he was drafted, what the Bears gave up to get him, and of course the volcanic explosion of fiery death that became his career on and off the field. The Bears traded down in the first round of the 1999 NFL Draft to select McNown. The pick they gave up eventually became 11-time Pro Bowler Champ Bailey. To put the cherry on top of the most abominable ice cream sundae ever seen, McNown displayed the charm of a hairball (hence the 10 added to his score). He applied for and received a handicapped parking space while at UCLA in the spring of 1997, which is the moral equivalent of stealing the last mini-weenie off your blind friend Steve’s plate. Just because it’s there doesn’t mean you should take it. He made his closing argument for football’s D-Bag of the Decade (watch out, Ryan Leaf) by getting himself banned from the Playboy Mansion. The man tried to take Hugh Hefner’s girlfriend. Hef!

Expected Statistical Production (ESP)
20 TD, 12 INT, 2,500 YDS, 8-8 avg. record x 10 seasons = 200 TD, 120 INT, 25,000 YDS, 80-80

Real On-Field Output (ROFO)
8 TD, 9.5 INT, 1555 YDS, 3-13 x 2 = 16 TD, 19 INT, 3,111 YDS, 3-12

Bust Factor
(200/16) – (120/19) + (80/3) + (25,000 /3,111) = 12.5 – 6.32 + 26.67 + 8.04 = 40.89 x 2.14 mill + 10 = 97.50

Cedric Benson, Bears (82.22)

It seems only fitting that a pair of Bears rests atop this list. While Benson now has a prosperous NFL career in Cincinnati, Bears fans will never have such fond memories of the former Texas star, and apparently neither will Bears players. If it isn’t painful enough to reminisce about his 36-day contract holdout and his constant whining that led to actually productive running back Thomas Jones being traded, then try this: In 2004, the Bears started four different QB’s—Rex Grossman, Chad Hutchinson, Craig Krenzel, and Jonathan Quinn. I know! I’ve never heard of those other three guys either! In the 2005 draft, Benson was selected while a certain quarterback was still on the board, a quarterback Bears fans now despise more than Satan, Darth Vader, and Tom Cruise combined: Yep. Aaron Rodgers.

Expected Statistical Production (ESP)
1,000 yards, 12 TD, 5.0 Yards Per Carry x 5 seasons = 5,000 yards, 60 TD, 5.0 YPC

Real On-Field Output (ROFO)
531 yards, 3.33 TD, 3.8 YPC x 3 seasons = 1,593 yards, 10 TD, 3.8 YPC

Bust Factor
(5,000 yards / 1,593) + (60 TD / 10) + (5.0 YPC / 3.8) = 3.14 + 6.0 + 1.32 = 10.46 x 7 mill = 73.22 + 9 = 82.22

Jay Williams, Bulls (69.44)

The second overall pick from Duke in 2002, Williams was supposed to be the point guard catalyst and scoring machine on an up-and-coming Bulls team. Instead, he played just one season before crashing his motorcycle into a utility pole, cutting his career short. Before we break out the violin for Mr. Williams, let’s consider that Jay was violating his Bulls contract and basic safety guidelines taught to five-year-olds when he drove into a pole without a helmet or a license to drive a motorcycle in the state of Illinois. Plus, the team had to eat the last $3 million of his three-year contract just to buy him off the roster. He receives an 8 for pitiful bone-headedness that ruined a potentially fabulous career.

ESP
20.0 PPG, 6.0 AST, 1.4 STL x 246 games (3 seasons)

Real On-Court Output (ROCO)
9.5 PPG, 4.7 AST, 1.1 STL x 82 games (1 season)

Bust Factor
(4,920 pts / 779) + (1,476 ast / 385.4) + (984 stl / 90.2) = 6.32 + 3.83 + 1.27 = 11.42 x 5.38 mill = 61.44 + 8 = 69.44

Curtis Enis, Bears (64.78)

Drafted fifth overall back in 1998, the Bears were reportedly torn between the running back Enis and some guy named Randy Moss. Future Hall of Fame running back Fred Taylor was also still on the board, but the Bears took Enis, and guess what happens. Enis held out of training camp for 16 days, taking a three-year deal instead of six (thank you football gods) because he thought he’d be able to make more money later. He tore his ACL midway through his rookie campaign and was never the same again. This kind of thing needs to happen to more rookie holdouts who think they’re hot stuff (hey Michael Crabtree, look over here).

ESP
1,200 yards, 16 TD, 5.5 Yards Per Carry x 6 seasons = 7,200 yards, 96 TD, 5.5 YPC

ROFO
499 YDS, 1.33 TD, 3.3 YPC x 3 yrs = 1,497 YDS, 4 TD, 3.3 YPC

Bust Factor
(7,200 yards / 1,497) + (96 TD / 4) + (5.5 YPC / 3.3) = 4.81 + 24 + 1.67 = 30.48 x 1.83 mill = 55.78 + 9 = 64.78

Alfonso Soriano, Cubs (62.37)

Outside of the insane amount of money he makes for his mediocre performance, I have little problem with Soriano. He might not win the award for Best Husband, but what business is that of mine? He makes charitable donations and stays out of trouble off the field. But as a paying customer at Wrigley Field, way too large a percentage of my money ends up in Soriano’s pocket when it could go to financing an attack on Barack Obama.

ESP
.280 BA, 28 HR, 95 RBI, x 6 seasons = .280, 168 HR, 570 RBI

ROFO
.266 BA, 25 HR, 69 RBI x 6= .266, 150 HR, 414 RBI

Bust Factor
(168 HR / 150 ) + (760 RBI / 414) + (.280 BA / .266) = 1.12 + 1.38 + 1.05 = 3.55 X 16.16 mill = 57.37 + 5 = 62.37

Jaime Navarro, White Sox (50.45)

It may be a surprise to see Navarro as high as he is on this list, but when you consider that he was the second-highest paid player on the White Sox at the time and put up the horrendous stats you see below, it’s more understandable. And unlike say, Mark Prior, he failed to lead his team to any kind of postseason series. His failure on the field alone carries him past some of the city’s other big disappointments.

ESP
14-8, 3.80, 110 K x 4 seasons= 56-32, 3.80 ERA, 440 K

ROFO
8-14, 6.06, 95 x 3 seasons = 25-43, 6.06 ERA, 286 K

Bust Factor
(56 W / 8) + (440 / 286) + (6.06 / 3.80) = 7.0 + 1.54 + 1.59 = 9.99 x 5 mill = 49.45 + 1 = 50.45

Mark Prior, Cubs (43.37)

Since Prior was drafted second overall out of USC by the Cubbies in 2001, the Red Sox, White Sox, Ryan Theriot, and Corey Patterson have all won World Series rings. Meanwhile, Prior has earned nothing more than a spot on this list. He was stellar in 2003, winning 18 games and leading the Cubs to the NLCS, in which…OK, yeah yeah, we all remember. We saw an entire season of what this kid could have done every year for 10-15 years, which makes his fall from grace all the more tragic. He earns a 9 for his “intangible disappointment,” otherwise known as heartbreak. Fans can never forgive Prior for imploding in the game we will not ever speak of again so that you don’t have to throw another stapler through the wall. And he didn’t exactly atone for his postseason woes with his sunny personality. The guy makes Ben Stein look like Ozzie Guillen, which is fine, when you’re winning 18 games a year. He didn’t make an obscene amount of money like another Cub on this list, but what he did make he used to buy a summer home on the Disabled List.

ESP
18-7, 3.30 ERA, 210 K x 15 seasons = 270-105, 3.25 ERA, 3,150 K

ROFO
8-6, 3.51, 151 K x 5 seasons = 42-29, 3.51 ERA, 757 K

Bust Factor
(270 W / 42) + (3,150 K / 757) + (3.51 ERA / 3.30) = 6.43 + 4.16 + 1.06 = 11.65 x 2.95 mill = 34.37 + 9 = 43.37

Tyson Chandler, Bulls (42.52)

Chandler was traded to the Bulls on draft day in 2001 for Elton Brand, and then dealt five years later for J.R. Smith and P.J. Brown. That’s like swapping a new Lexus for a used Subaru. Since being shipped out of the Windy City, Chandler has been named Defensive Player of the Year, and won both a title in Dallas and an Olympic gold medal. He also decked Lebron in this year’s playoffs and did this at the Mavs’ victory party. So, yes, Chandler panned out, just not during the six-year, $64 million contract he received from the Bulls.

ESP
6.0 PPG, 9.0 REB, 1.8 BLK, x 820 games (10 seasons)

ROCO
6.9 PPG, 7.6 REB, 1.4 BLK x 410 games (5 seasons)

Bust Factor
(13,120 PTS / 2,829) + (7,380 REB / 3,116) + (1,476 BLK / 574) = 4.64 + 2.37 + 2.57 = 9.58 * 4.23 mill = 40.52 + 2 = 42.52

So when I revisit this list of Chicago’s biggest busts in five or 10 years, will I be forced to add Anthony Rizzo? Starlin Castro? Gordon Beckham? Brandon Marshall? God forbid, Derrick Rose? Only time will tell. Here’s hoping they all keep their Bust Factors low.